Arizona Drawing Odds Explained
***PLEASE READ***
Although Arizona limits the non-resident to a maximum of 10% of the available permits, the Arizona Game and Fish does not differentiate between resident and non-resident in the application reports. Therefore, the odds presented here are the same for resident and non-resident alike. Keeping this in mind, these odds should be viewed as a worst case for the resident and best case for the non-resident. Generally speaking, if a non-resident has built sufficient preference points to be in the Bonus Pass Levels (these levels are indicated by yellow boxes on the odds reports) their odds will be very close to what is presented.
As the drawing is proceeding, resident and non-resident applicants are all competing for the available permits. As soon as the non-residents cap of 10% is reached in an area (if this happens at all), any remaining non-residents are omitted from the remainder of the drawing for that area. In areas with few permits, it is possible for the non-resident cap to be reached in the Bonus Pass which would leave no tags for the 1st and 2nd choice pass. In the sheep drawings, it is possible for the total sheep non-resident cap to be reached before a single non-resident has even been considered in some units.
We have requested seperate resident and non-resident application reports from the Arizona Game and Fish and will continue to work with them to acquire this data. If and when we are able to acquire seperate reports, the True Statistical Odds will be calculated and presented.
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